(DailyChive.com) – Although it’s a new year, old worries have resurfaced as the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released a report that portrays a worrying outlook for the future of US-China relations. Experts have warned of a potential flare-up of tensions over Taiwan in 2024.
The survey, carried out in collaboration with the Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR), surveyed 87 leading experts from both the US and Taiwan, uncovering a pervasive pessimism about the current trajectory of cross-strait relations. However, the survey’s most alarming revelation is the high likelihood of a Taiwan Strait crisis this year.
Approximately 67% of US experts and 57% of Taiwanese experts believe in the possibility of such a scenario. This mirrored the intensity of the 1995-1996 crisis when China responded to Taiwan’s President Lee Teng-hui’s visit to the US with a series of missile tests.
Adding to the concern is the perception that recent diplomatic efforts between Washington and Beijing have failed to reduce tensions meaningfully. Experts believe the two powers remain entangled in a competition-driven relationship despite engaging in dialogues and maintaining open communication channels. This leaves little room for maneuvering, especially concerning sensitive issues like Taiwan’s upcoming presidential election.
The prospect of a Chinese response to the election, mainly if it results in a victory for a pro-independence candidate, is a significant worry. Experts fear that China might employ coercive measures, such as military drills or economic sanctions, to pressure Taiwan and deter its independent aspirations.
Compounding the problem is the perception that China possesses the capabilities for significant escalation. The survey discloses that a majority of experts believe China could implement a law enforcement-led quarantine or even impose a full-scale blockade of Taiwan. While a full-blown invasion is considered less likely, the mere possibility of such actions casts a long shadow over the region’s stability.
Moreover, the report paints a grim picture of a potentially volatile year ahead. The combination of a high-stakes election in Taiwan strained US-China relations, and China’s growing military capabilities created a precarious situation with the potential for dangerous escalation.
Copyright 2024, DailyChive.com
