(DailyChive.com) – Nate Silver, the founder of the famous polling platform FiveThirtyEight, predicted that former President Donald Trump has a nearly 66% chance of winning the White House in the November elections.
Silver, who has a history of voting for Democratic presidential candidates, stated that calling the 2024 Presidential race toss-up is a “white lie” and that even if he wants Biden to win, Trump has an overwhelming chance of claiming the White House.
He recently devised a new model based on almost 40,000 simulations, according to which Biden only stands 33.7% chance compared to Trump’s 65.7% in the upcoming elections.
However, Biden could win the popular vote, which explains why he still leads in some nationwide polls, Silver added. Trump has previously won the presidential race in 2016 despite losing the popular vote against Hillary Clinton, who lost some critical swing states by a narrow margin.
While describing his new model, Silver noted that his algorithm is designed on factors like the presence of third-party candidates on the ballot, the reliability of the polling data available, and whether the polls consider unregistered voters during the sampling, among other things.
Silver also suggested that Biden still has enough time to course correct and nominate someone else, like Vice President Kamala Harris, for the top job to save the Democratic party from humiliation in the 2024 elections.
He also noted that if Biden continues his poor run in the polls in August, he should allow someone else to replace him and talking about this should not be a taboo among Democrats. Nominating another candidate, Silver continued, is itself a “terrible” idea, which pushes Democrats in a tricky situation.
Meanwhile, Silver’s former platform, FiveThirtyEight, which he recently exited, disagrees with his assertion. The platform claims that the race is completely “toss-up”, with Biden having a 51% chance of winning the elections.
Silver had previously attracted criticism for his wrong predictions in the 2016 presidential race when he claimed that Hillary had a 71% chance of winning the election.
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